In his weekly memo, Hougan cited Trump’s order and rising assist for crypto from the SEC as fundamental drivers for Bitcoin’s mainstream adoption. On January 23, Trump signed an order. Hougan says the present cycle started in March 2023. That’s when Grayscale gained an early court docket victory in opposition to the SEC over a Bitcoin ETF.
That very same sort of ETFs launched in January 2024, which captured billions of {dollars} from new buyers. Hougan sees Trump’s government order as a possible set off for even larger adjustments.
Bitcoin usually follows a four-year cycle, influenced by halving occasions. Each time, following a halving, provide shrinks, costs rise, after which a downturn follows. Main corrections for BTC occurred in 2014, 2018, and 2022, which suggests one other pullback in 2026. Nevertheless, Hougan thinks any future corrections will probably be shorter and shallower as a result of the market is maturing and there are extra buyers throughout a broader array of use instances.
Wanting forward, he thinks 2025 will probably be an excellent yr for crypto. He additionally warned that leverage and hypothesis may result in short-term setbacks. Whereas a full regulatory framework could take time, he sees long-term development as inevitable.
