The 26 per cent Trump tariff is anticipated to make Indian cashew extra aggressive within the US market within the brief time period, however exporters anticipate elevated competitors in the long term from African producers, who face a decrease responsibility.
Bola Rahul Kamath, President, All India Cashew Affiliation, stated the US has levied a tariff of 46 per cent on Vietnam, whereas it has levied 26 per cent on India. Because of this, Indian cashew will probably be 20 per cent cheaper in comparison with that of Vietnam within the US. bout 90 per cent of the US cashew imports come from Vietnam, whereas India’s share may be very small, Kamath stated.
US consumes round 1.5 lakh tonnes of cashew, of which Vietnam’s share is 1.3 lakh tonnes, whereas India’s share is round 7,000-8,000 tonnes.
“Within the brief time period, it’s optimistic for Indian cashew exporters as a result of our competitor is punished greater than us. Nonetheless, in the long run, there could possibly be extra competitors from African nations, as they’ve an obligation of 10 per cent. So, the African nations will probably be 15 per cent extra aggressive than India. If the African nations can enhance manufacturing, construct capacities and begin supplying to the US, we may even see a problem within the subsequent 2-3 years,” Kamath stated.
Exports dipping
Indian cashew exporters have been going through stiff competitors Vietnam within the international markets within the latest years on account of which the exports have been on a decline. “Within the subsequent 1-2 years, India could bounce again within the US market if this information is right” he stated.
India’s cashew exports in worth phrases had touched a seven 12 months low at $339.21 million for the monetary 12 months 2023-24, a decline of round 4.8 per cent over earlier 12 months’s $356.32 million. Within the April-Feb interval of FY 2024-25, India’s cashew exports stood at $313.32 million, up 1 per cent over corresponding earlier 12 months’s $310.25 million.
The brand new US tariffs at 26 per cent augurs effectively for the Indian cashew business to seize a considerable share of the US cashew kernel market from Vietnam, stated J.Rajmohan Pillai, chairman of Beta Group which owns the model NutKing.
He saidthe 46 per cent tariff on Vietnam will create a substantial aggressive drawback to that nation which holds roughly 98 per cent of the entire worth of cashew imports into the US from Asia.
Increase processing
Nonetheless, India ought to evaluate and develop its present cashew processing capacities and look into strategic sourcing of uncooked cashew nuts from African nations. “We anticipate a possible surge in uncooked cashew nut imports to India, adopted by elevated processing and export to america,” he instructed businessline.
The first cashew manufacturing centres embrace Vietnam, India, Brazil, and Côte d’Ivoire. Brazil retains its present 10 per cent tariff and it’ll keep its present market place. The 46 per cent tariff on Vietnam will create a substantial aggressive drawback, whereas Cambodia endures a 49 per cent tariff which is able to make exports to the US very troublesome. Côte d’Ivoire faces a 21 per cent tariff and it will likely be troublesome for them to compete.
“Underneath the present tax situation, we anticipate the Indian cashew kernel exports to the US might enhance by at the very least 200 per cent throughout the monetary 12 months. With the big tariff on Vietnam, India might simply take 50 per cent of their market share,” Pillai stated.
The US has traditionally been one of many high importers of Indian cashew kernels. Nonetheless, Vietnam set a file by exporting practically 192,200 tonnes of cashew kernels to the US, valued at over $1.15 billion in 2024.
Printed on April 3, 2025
