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The Greggs (LSE:GRG) share value has made an terrible begin to the 12 months. Solely months in the past, the inventory was breezily altering arms above £31. Right now, it’s buying and selling beneath £18 because the enterprise battles a plethora of challenges.
So, does the FTSE 250 sausage roll retailer now provide an inexpensive funding alternative? Or have Greggs shares develop into a stale value trap to keep away from?
Let’s discover.
A bitter style
At first look, the collapse within the Greggs share value may seem unwarranted. Revenue handed £2bn for the primary time final 12 months and pre-tax profit rose 8.4% to succeed in £204m. These look like strong numbers, so what on earth’s occurring?
Properly, the inventory market’s usually described as forward-looking. Basically, previous outcomes are yesterday’s story. What actually issues are the clues they’ll present buyers a few agency’s future development trajectory. On this entrance, there are a number of complications for Greggs shareholders.
Like-for-like gross sales development has slowed to a snail’s tempo, inching simply 1.7% increased within the first 9 weeks of 2025. The corporate cited “difficult climate circumstances” in January as an element behind the deceleration. It’s hardly ever signal when a agency’s reaching accountable the British winter for an underwhelming efficiency.
As well as, the Newcastle-based enterprise warned that margins may very well be compressed in 2026 and 2027, impacted by investments in manufacturing, logistics, and distribution. To compound difficulties, will increase to the Nationwide Dwelling Wage and an increase in employer’s Nationwide Insurance coverage contributions add inflationary strain, which might damage the underside line.
Essentially, it appears the wind has been taken out of the agency’s sails. The Greggs share value has traditionally loved sturdy optimistic momentum, propelled by fast development throughout a number of metrics. Within the cutthroat food-to-go market, the corporate can in poor health afford to take a breather whereas opponents snap at its heels.
Silver linings
Though issues could seem gloomy for Greggs, there are countervailing causes to be optimistic. Affected person buyers should be rewarded given the board stays bullish that it could actually return to its earlier development trajectory in the long run, even when it takes a number of years.
Plus, there was a saving grace for buyers who prioritise passive revenue. The group’s boosted its full-year dividend by 11% to 69p per share. Dividends are effectively lined at two instances anticipated earnings, offering shareholders with a good margin of security.
From a valuation perspective, the Greggs share value additionally appears to be like extra enticing immediately. The forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio has lowered significantly relative to the inventory’s historic common. Buying and selling at a a number of of 13 instances ahead earnings, there’s a reputable case to be made that the shares are low cost immediately.
Lastly, bold long-term enlargement plans to function greater than 3,000 UK shops point out that there might nonetheless be room for additional development. In 2024, the enterprise celebrated opening its 2,600th store and it goals to ship 140 to 150 new shops this 12 months.
My take
I’ve been impressed with Greggs’ enterprise prior to now, however the newest outcomes have given me pause for thought. Though the inventory appears to be like low cost immediately, I’m reluctant to speculate till I see concrete proof that the agency can return to its glory days. Total, I see higher funding alternatives elsewhere.
